The last decade has seen a significant decline in interest in attending college among high school seniors. This decline is strongest among male students who identify as conservative, and students with no political ideology. Students identifying as liberal or moderate do not show any decline in interest.
I keep coming across articles such as this, reporting on declining interest in college education. I wondered when this started and who is most affected.
From 1976 until the present, the Monitoring the Future survey has tracked the behaviors, attitudes, and values of American youth. Included is the following question about the aspirations of 12th graders:
“Suppose you could do just what you'd like, and nothing stood in your way. How many of the following things would you WANT to do? Graduate from college (four-year program).”
The survey also includes a rich set of demographics, which allowed me to look at the data from different angles. Here I present some of the more interesting trends I found.
In the 1970s, only half of seniors were interested in college. This statistic increased steadily, plateauing in the early 2000s at around 80%. The fall started following the Great Recession. Despite the economic recovery, interest in college has continued to fall.
Earlier on, girls and boys tracked together, and then started to diverge in the late 1980s. Boys' interest in college plateaued much earlier than that of girls, and it is also the boys who have seen a larger, significant decline.
It is interesting to see how little variation there was in terms of race until the Great Recession. Interest fell across all racial groups. Although Black students showed a more pronounced initial decline, the levels have converged again.
Political ideology is very relevant to identifying who is losing interest in college. Students identifying as Liberal and Moderate have maintained their interest in college. The decrease is coming primarily from conservative students and students without a clear ideology. While the survey doesn't ask about income, it does include parental education, which serves as a proxy for socioeconomic status. Students who choose ‘None’ as their ideology tend to be from lower parental education backgrounds.
When we look at the impact of ideology and gender, we find that the flat trend for liberals and moderates is consistent across both genders. The two groups that stand out are conservative males and people who don't identify with any ideology.